Home Run Derby Final Result

I lost.

Now go read this.

Home Run Derby Final Result

Because I know you care, here's the wrap on my 2016 home run derby fantasy sports effort....

As I mentioned in July, my 15-man roster lost a man, Kyle Schwarber of the Chicago Cubs, just two games into the season (see July 5, 2016, "Home Run Derby Update"). Also this year, Lucas Duda of the New York Mets missed the lion's share of the season, and ended up with just 7 round-trippers.

So I essentially worked with a 13 1/4-man roster this year. But with one exception, the players I selected back in April turned out to be very good home run hitters. Whereas I'd taken some risks with my picks in 2015, this year I opted for more proven players, as I didn't want to finish in last place again (see April 3, 2016, "Picking a Winner").

Here's the breakdown of my team by division:

**American League East**

BALTIMORE ORIOLES:

ADAM JONES -- I like Jones; he's a solid power hitter. He hit 29 this year, two better than last season, which means, based on the rules of the derby, I can select him again next year, which I most likely will (you can't choose players who had 30 or more HR's the prior season).

MARK TRUMBO -- He hit more long balls than anyone in all of Major League Baseball, so I'm patting myself on the back for choosing him. His 47 is a career best, and more than twice as many as he hit last year. Can't take him in 2017, however.

BOSTON RED SOX

I'm embarrassed to say I made a big mistake not choosing anyone from my favorite team, the team I've loved since before I even knew what baseball was. Mookie Betts hit 18 last year, and was projected to hit only a few more this year. I don't recall what Hanley Ramirez and Jackie Bradley Jr. were predicted to hit, but I wasn't impressed enough to select them. As you know, Big Papi was ineligible due to having hit more than 30 long balls last year. Well, Betts ended up with 31; Bradley had 26 (so I'll pick him next year); Ramirez had 30, after hitting 19 last year in a miserable season. And the X Man, Xander Bogaerts, had 21, so I'll consider him in 2017 as well.

**American League Central**

DETROIT TIGERS:

MIGUEL CABRERA -- What a player Cabrera is: hits for power and average and only missed four games this year. His 38 homers tied his second-best output of his career.

JUSTIN UPTON -- He cranked it up in the second half to match his career-best at 31 big flies. He had only 8 back in July, and I've more or less written him off. With all the big hits that he and Cabrera had, though, they still couldn't blast the Tigers into the playoffs.

MINNESOTA TWINS:

MIGUEL SANO -- I wish he'd played in more than 116 games. With 25 home runs in 116 games, he was on pace to push the 30 mark. Still, I can't complain, other than about the fact that I didn't select his teammate, Brian Dozier, who belted 42 homers. He'll be in the running for my team next year.

**American League West**

HOUSTON ASTROS:

GEORGE SPRINGER -- He didn't hit for average all that well at .261, but with 29 homers, Springer just managed to beat the predicted 26-28. I'll probably choose him next year.

SEATTLE MARINERS:

KYLE SEAGER -- With a career high 30 home runs, Seager was a nice addition to my team.

**National League East**

MIAMI MARLINS:

GIANCARLO STANTON -- He played in 45 more games this year than last year, but hit the same number of homes runs: 27. I'm not complaining, but he was projected to hit between 40 and 45. OK, so I'm complaining. Next year? Maybe.

NEW YORK METS:

LUCAS DUDA -- He played only 47 games, and hit 7 home runs. Projections had him at 25-30. This was a big bummer.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:

MAIKEL FRANCO -- He hit 25 long balls in his first full year, so there's a good chance I'll pick him next year.

**National League Central**

CHICAGO CUBS:

KRIS BRYANT -- He finished second in the National League, so I'm very happy.

KYLE SCHWARBER -- In 69 games in 2015, he hit 16 home runs. He was predicted to hit 25-27 this year. He suffered a season-ending injury in the second game this season. Thankfully, I was far from the only guy who picked him this year. In fact, the third place finisher in this year's derby was a fellow Schwarber-less team. Wait 'til next year....

CINCINNATI REDS:

JOEY VOTTO -- He had a somewhat slow start but ended up with 29, matching last year's total. He's 33, so I doubt I'll pick him next year, but I was pleasantly surprised with his production.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS:

CHRIS CARTER -- A career .218 hitter, he is nonetheless a big masher. He hit a career-high 41 this year, which put a big smile on his face.

**National League West**

LOS ANGELES DODGERS:

ADRIAN GONZALEZ -- At age 34, he can still hit (.285 this year/.290 career) for average, but his power dropped from 28 last year to 18 this year. He'll turn 35 shortly after the beginning of next season, so there's no way he's making my team.

BOTTOM LINE:

I finished either 11th or 12th, depending on whose numbers you believe. By my count, I came in 11th; by the tally of the league's commissioner, I finished in 12th. Somehow he misplaced three of my HR's, but of course he may have miscounted other competitors' numbers as well, so maybe I did come in 12th out of 45. Either way, it's way better than my last place finish in 2015.

For next year the commish is considering letting teams draft 16 players and using the top 15 results, to avoid a situation like this year when so many competitors lost a player -- Schwarber -- so early on and had in some cases little hope as the season progressed. I support that change. Until then....

If you've made it this far, here's your reward:

GO SOX!!!

Home Run Derby Update

The halfway point of the season seems like a good time to check in on my home run derby status. As regular readers will remember, back in the first week of April I posted my 15-man squad for the annual fantasy contest I take part in (see April 3, 2016, "Picking a Winner").

My wife's brother-in-law, Todd, runs the derby, and indicated at the outset that I had picked one of the most conservative teams, unlike in years past when I've gone with some risky picks and foregone obvious winners. Only the top three contenders finish in the money, and I knew I wasn't as geeky about analyzing my picks as some of the other guys are, but I felt confident I could finish in the Top 10. I'm thinking of my pride this year.

Three days into the season, however, one of my picks, the Cubs' Kyle Schwarber, was injured in an outfield collision. The next day, April 8, the team announced he had torn his ACL and LCL (and the heart out of my chest) and was done for the season. Great, I thought, I now have a 14-man roster. Of course, plenty of other guys in the derby also had Schwarber on their teams. I had to hope that the rest of my guys could out-perform the full rosters of those who hadn't picked the Cub outfielder/catcher, and that players on others' rosters whom I didn't have, would get injured (but not too badly, of course).

For most of the past 13 weeks I've stayed at or above the league average, ranging between 7 and 22 home runs per week. Let's break down my team:

**American League East**:

BALTIMORE ORIOLES:

ADAM JONES -- He was on my team last year and hit 27 home runs. After a slow start this year, he's ramped it up lately, with 16 round-trippers, putting him on pace to surpass last year, if he can stay healthy.

MARK TRUMBO -- Also on my team in 2015, he hit 22 big flies last year in 142 games. He has already passed that mark, with 24, leading the American League.

**American League Central**:

DETROIT TIGERS:

MIGUEL CABRERA -- Another returning player, Cabrera tallied 18 home runs last year while missing roughly a quarter of the season. He's at that number right now, which bodes well for the rest of the season.

JUSTIN UPTON -- Yet another guy from last year's squad, he's one of my biggest disappointments so far. He hit 26 taters last year and was projected to hit that many this year, but so far has only 8.

MINNESOTA TWINS:

MIGUEL SANO -- New to my team and only in his second year, Sano this week came off a long stint on the DL. His 18 home runs in 80 games last year were impressive; he was predicted to hit between 32 and 38 this year, but has only 12 so far.

**American League West**:

HOUSTON ASTROS:

GEORGE SPRINGER -- He was also on my team last year, but parked only 16, as he missed 60 games. He has 19 right now, which means he's got a great chance of surpassing the predicted 26-28 home runs this year.

SEATTLE MARINERS:

KYLE SEAGER -- I didn't know much about this guy, still don't, but he belted 26 homers last year. His 16 at this point means he could approach 30 this season.

**National League East**:

MIAMI MARLINS:

GIANCARLO STANTON -- So much talent here. He played in only 74 games last year, but still hit 27 dingers. He's young (26) and was projected to smash in the 40-45 range this season. If he's gonna do that, he's gotta ratchet it up, as he only has 15 right now, and is batting only .216.

NEW YORK METS:

LUCAS DUDA -- He missed 27 games last year and still hit 27 home runs. He's been on the DL for more than a month, and has 7 home runs. Predicted to hit 25-30 this year, Duda is more likely to be a 15-18 guy.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:

MAIKEL FRANCO -- Never heard of this guy before this year, but I liked the fact that he hit 14 round-trippers last year in limited action. He's only 23, but hit 9 homers during spring training. He's cooled off a bit lately, but has lost 15 balls this season, so he's still on target to hit the two dozen or so that experts figured.

**National League Central**:

CHICAGO CUBS:

KRIS BRYANT -- Didn't choose him last year when just about everybody else did, and he hit 26 gopher balls. He's projected to hit at least 30, and with 24 already, I'd say he's likely to push 40.

KYLE SCHWARBER -- Out for the season. He's only 23 years old, but hit 16 round trippers last year in limited action. Baseball pundits had him in the 25-27 range this year. Wait 'til next year....

CINCINNATI REDS:

JOEY VOTTO -- He's not young --- 32 years old -- but hit 29 last year. After a somewhat slow start, he's picked up the pace lately and stands at 14 HR's. Still on target for two dozen or so.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS:

CHRIS CARTER He doesn't hit for average, but smashed 24 HR's last year. He has 20 this year, although he has slowed down of late. Likely to at least reach the 28-30 range predicted this season.

**National League West**:

LOS ANGELES DODGERS:

ADRIAN GONZALEZ -- Last, and also least, is the Cooler, so called by Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe because "Gonzalez in [2010-2012 was] part of historic folds by the Padres, Red Sox, and Dodgers." I opted against him last year because of the bad taste in my mouth after his less-than-stellar tenure with the Red Sox. He hit 28 big flies last year, though, and was projected to hit 25-28 this year, so I chose him. Production to date: 6 home runs.

So, with 13 weeks down and 13 to go, I stand in 13th place out of 45, with 214 home runs. Unlucky 13? Perhaps. Maybe the second half of the year will fall apart for me; maybe one of my guys will take part in the home run derby and then see his numbers fall off in the second half.

I'm 20 home runs out of first place. Barring major injuries to players on the 12 teams in front of me that somehow don't affect me, I won't make up that distance. But I'm confident I won't drop all the way down either, as 35 round trippers separate me from the dungeon. Not bad for a guy who finished last in 2015, and who is fighting with one player tied behind my back. Stay tuned for another update or two the rest of the way.

Picking a Winner

I love baseball, and will root for the Red Sox this year even if they show signs of a bottom-of-the-American-League-East three-peat. I, however, declare that I won't finish in the basement for the second year in a row in the fantasy home run derby league I play in.

I was born and bred a baseball fan, specifically a Red Sox rooter. My older brother, Steve, and I played Little League and Babe Ruth ball. We also played a LOT of sandlot baseball with our friends. Pilgrimages to Fenway Park to see the Sox were always a special treat. We collected baseball cards; my brother modified many of them by stapling pieces of paper to the back documenting a player's current stats.

The legend in my family is that Steve learned to read at a young age by checking the Red Sox box scores in the Hartford Courant. He loved the team only a little bit more than he loved the statistics generated during a game. He used to play "finger baseball," in which he'd set up a field on the shag rug in our family room using little pieces of paper for bases, books laid on their sides for outfield walls, and a marble for a baseball. I believe he used Major League lineups right out of that day's newspaper. I, of course, set up my own field close by. I didn't have lineups or keep score, and usually got bored of the game long before he did.

When my brother got a little older, he started playing APBA Baseball with me and our friends. What's that? Never heard of APBA?

Watch this video and then come back.

While we're both still huge Sox fans, neither of us plays fantasy sports. I do, however, compete each year in a season-long home run derby. In this contest you choose 15 players from across both the American and National leagues who you believe will hit the most combined bombs. You can't select any player who had 30 or more round-trippers the prior year, and there are no replacements allowed due to injury, death or banishment.

Last year I had a few great performers (Chris Davis of the Orioles, 46; Josh Donaldson of the Blue Jays, 41; and the Diamondbacks' Paul Goldschmidt, 33), but too many mediocre guys (the Cardinals' Brandon Moss, 19; the Tigers' Miguel Cabrera, 18) and more duds than Wile E. Coyote (the Rockies' Corey Dickerson, 10; the White Sox' Adam LaRoche, 12; and the Cubs' Jorge Soler, 10).

Soler was a promising rookie, but not as highly regarded as Kris Bryant, who at the end of a terrific season was named National League Rookie of the Year. So why didn't I choose Bryant? Well, why don't you read what I wrote about this last year: September 15, 2015, "Dead Wrong."

This year I pledge, like George Costanza, to do The Opposite:

This means I won't choose a member of the Red Sox just because I love the team (*cough cough*, Mike Napoli). Mookie Betts is tempting, but I need someone projected to hit more than two dozen home runs, and he doesn't fit that bill. This also means being unafraid of jumping on somebody's bandwagon, such as Maikel Franco of the Phillies, who has hit eight home runs in 65 at-bats this spring, or the Twins' much-touted Byung Ho Park, an unproven big leaguer (in this country) who's projected to hit as many as 29 taters.

Doing The Opposite also stipulates that I shouldn't refuse to choose Adrian Gonzalez despite lingering feelings of his being a bad sport, and it means choosing Kris Bryant because he had 26 last year and I'm not above admitting I was an idiot in passing him over.

So who's on my list, the one that if nothing else, will keep me out of last place (I hope)?

**American League East**:

BALTIMORE ORIOLES:

ADAM JONES, who I chose last year and who paid off with 27 home runs. He missed 25 games last year with a back injury, so I have to hope he stays healthy.

MARK TRUMBO, who was also on my derby team in 2015. He hit 22 round trippers last year in 142 games. One projection has him hitting 30 this year.

**American League Central**:

DETROIT TIGERS:

MIGUEL CABRERA, who was on my team last year. He hit .338 but only tallied 18 home runs while missing roughly a quarter of the season. Projections are between 25 and 28 taters.

JUSTIN UPTON, yet another guy from last year's squad. He hit 26 and is projected to hit at least that many this year.

MINNESOTA TWINS:

MIGUEL SANO -- finally a new guy! He his 18 home runs in 80 games and is predicted to hit between 32 and 38.

**American League West**:

HOUSTON ASTROS:

GEORGE SPRINGER was also on my team last year, but parked only 16, as he missed 60 games. Predictions put him between 26 and 28 home runs this year.

SEATTLE MARINERS:

KYLE SEAGER, who hit 26 last year and is projected to hit roughly that amount this season.

**National League East**:

MIAMI MARLINS:

GIANCARLO STANTON played in only 74 games last year, but still hit 27 dingers. He's young (26) and is projected to smash in the 40-45 range.

NEW YORK METS:

LUCAS DUDA missed 27 games last year and hit 27 home runs. He could hit 25-30 this year.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:

MAIKEL FRANCO is my dark horse. He's only 23 years old, and hit 14 homers last year in limited action. He hit 9 round trippers during spring training, and while he's only projected to hit in the 24 range, I'm banking on him surpassing that mark. Last year Kris Bryant nine bombs in spring training and I didn't choose him. I hope I chose right with Franco.

**National League Central**:

CHICAGO CUBS:

KRIS BRYANT, the guy I went against last year, hit 26 gopher balls. He's projected to hit at least 30.

KYLE SCHWARBER is only 23 years old, but hit 16 round trippers last year in limited action. Baseball pundits have him in the 25-27 range this year.

CINCINNATI REDS:

JOEY VOTTO is 32 years old, but hit 29 last year, and is seen as landing in the two dozen range this year.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS:

CHRIS CARTER smacked 24 taters last year and, if the numbers are right, will hit 28-30 this season.

**National League West**:

LOS ANGELES DODGERS:

ADRIAN GONZALEZ isn't young (34) but hit 28 big flies last year and is projected to hit 25-28 this year.

The season starts tonight. I'll update my progress occasionally, especially if I'm doing well.